The second quarter produced more buyers, more accepted contracts, and one important reminder: activity doesn’t always translate into higher prices.
Single-family homes closed sales ran slightly behind last year’s second quarter, 187 against 193, a decline of about 3%. Pending sales moved the other direction, up 10.2% to 183.
Condo closed sales gained real ground, up 10.6% to 209. Pending sales jumped further still, up 32.1% to 222.
Put simply, the condo market accounted for much of the improvement in second-quarter transaction activity. Single-family homes held essentially flat on closings while continuing to build pending sales, just at a steadier pace than condos.
That pending sales acceleration matches what we saw in the field. Showings and offers picked up substantially in the latter half of the quarter, particularly heading into June, ahead of what the closed sales numbers alone would suggest. Closings tend to lag that kind of pickup by a month or two, so the fuller effect of that activity is likely to show up in Q3’s closed sales figures.
Locally, the biggest development of the quarter was procedural rather than statistical. On June 19, the Maui County Council passed Bill 88 on final reading, creating the H-3 and H-4 hotel zoning categories that will shape which apartment-zoned condos can pursue continued short-term rental use under Bill 9. We cover what that does and does not mean below, along with what has happened since the quarter closed.
Let’s get into the numbers.
Single-Family Homes: Activity Moderated After a Strong Start to the Year
Second Quarter Single-Family Stats (April, May, June 2026):
- Closed Sales: 187, down about 3% from Q2 2025’s 193
- Pending Sales: 183, up 10.2% from Q2 2025’s 166
- Median Sales Price: $1,295,000 in April, $1,159,000 in May, $1,356,975 in June
- Months Supply of Absorption (June): 8.1 months, essentially flat with April and May
Closed sales came in essentially flat this quarter. Pending sales, by contrast, kept improving, up 10.2% over the same three months last year, just at a more modest pace than the condo market’s gain. Median price fluctuated from month to month rather than establishing a clear quarterly trend. April came in at $1,295,000, down 6.0% year-over-year, May dipped further to $1,159,000, down 10.2%, and June rebounded to $1,356,975, up 4.4%. Days on market ran below year-ago levels in both May and June. Months supply of absorption, the metric that tells us how long it would take to sell through current inventory at the current pace of buyer activity, held at 8.1 months in all three months of the quarter.
What This Means
Single-family home activity moderated after a strong first quarter. That is a pause, not a reversal. At 8.1 months of supply for sale, the market remains clearly in buyer-friendly territory, and the pending sales gain suggests demand has not slowed even though closings have leveled off. What we continue to see on the ground is consistent with this: homes priced in line with where buyers actually are thinking get shown and get offers. Homes still priced to where the market was a year ago tend to sit, regardless of how strong the property itself is.
Condominiums: The Segment Carrying Q2’s Momentum
Second Quarter Condominium Stats (April, May, June 2026):
- Closed Sales: 209, up 10.6% from Q2 2025’s 189
- Pending Sales: 222, up 32.1% from Q2 2025’s 168
- Median Sales Price: $651,250 in April, $597,000 in May, $625,000 in June
- Months Supply of Absorption (June): 14.2 months, down from 15.4 in March
Both closed and pending sales ran well ahead of last year’s second quarter, and the gap in pending sales, up nearly a third, points to a segment where buyers are actively writing offers rather than sitting on the sidelines. Price told a rougher story. April closed at a median of $651,250, down 8.9% year-over-year, May dropped further to $597,000, down 21.7%, and June came back up to $625,000, still down 8.8%. Days on market ran higher year-over-year in every month of the quarter, including a jump to 172 days in June.
What This Means
The pattern this quarter, sales activity up while price keeps giving ground, is consistent with price sensitivity rather than weak demand. If buyers had genuinely pulled back, pending and closed sales would be falling alongside price. Instead, both rose while price recalibrated. Bill 9 uncertainty is likely continuing to play a role here. Condos, unlike single-family homes, carry the added layer of zoning uncertainty tied to Bill 9 and the Minatoya List, and that uncertainty continues weighing in on price even as buyer activity in the segment improves. Other factors, including shifts in which communities and price tiers sold and rising insurance and HOA costs, are likely contributing as well. The longer days-on-market figure may reflect more time needed to secure an accepted offer, longer escrow periods, or both. What this points to for buyers and sellers alike is that the added complexity surrounding zoning status may be contributing to longer decision-making timelines for some buyers.
Regional Spotlight: Kihei and Wailea/Makena in Q2
Kihei was steady across both property types this quarter. Single-family home closings came in at 27 for the quarter, essentially flat with 26 a year ago. Condo closings were stronger, 79 this quarter against 70 a year ago, up close to 13%. Kihei remains the most liquid and accessible market on island in both segments.
Wailea and Makena had a quieter quarter than the year-to-date numbers alone would suggest, particularly on the condo side. Condo closings fell to 13 for the quarter, down from 21 a year ago, a drop of roughly 38%. The year-to-date figure for the area only shows an 8.9% decline, which means the first quarter was carrying that number and Q2 was noticeably softer on its own. Single-family home closings in the area rose to 6 for the quarter against 3 a year ago, but that is a small enough sample, on both sides of the comparison, that it should be read as a data point to watch rather than a trend.
Regional results reinforced the broader market story: transaction activity varied significantly by area, with Kihei remaining the island’s most active market while luxury resort communities experienced more uneven quarterly performance.
What Is Shaping the Maui Market Locally
Bill 9 Implementation
The most consequential local news of the quarter was procedural, not statistical. On June 19, the Maui County Council passed Bill 88 on second and final reading by a 7-2 vote. Bill 88 creates two new hotel zoning categories, H-3 and H-4, that establish a possible pathway for certain apartment-zoned condos with a documented history of short-term rental use to be individually rezoned for continued vacation rental operation. The bill does not rezone any property on its own; individual rezonings are being handled through separate legislation, described below. It only establishes the zoning categories and the framework properties would need to qualify under.
Bill 88 was transmitted to Mayor Bissen for signature following the June 19 vote. Moving past the close of Q2 into early Q3, the Housing and Land Use Committee took up Resolutions 26-110 and 26-111 in early July, the first wave of Council-initiated rezonings under the new framework, and advanced them by a 6-2 vote. These resolutions refer specific properties to the Planning Commission for review. They are not final rezoning votes. The Planning Commission will hold its own hearings before anything returns to the full Council for a decision.
For anyone who owns or is considering a condo on the Minatoya List, the takeaway is the same one we gave in Q1: due diligence on zoning status, where a specific property sits in this process, and HOA health has never mattered more. Bill 9 itself remains law, with the phase-out timeline unchanged for affected units, West Maui by January 1, 2029 and the rest of the county by January 1, 2031. Bill 88 lays the groundwork for some properties to pursue a different path, but which properties qualify, and when, is still working through a multi-stage process at the county level.
National News: What Is Shaping the Broader Market
Mortgage rates held in a relatively narrow band through the second quarter itself. As of July 16, after the quarter had closed, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.55% nationally, according to Freddie Mac.
Maui’s buyer pool, based on what we see in our own transactions, continues to skew toward cash buyers and buyers with substantial equity, which limits how directly mainland rate movement translates here. For buyers who have been waiting for a cleaner signal before acting, a rate environment that has stopped swinging sharply, paired with continued price recalibration in the condo segment, may be a more relevant combination than the headline rate itself.
If We Were Considering Selling Right Now
Price to where the market is today, not where it was a year ago. That advice held in Q1 and it holds now.
- In the single-family home segment, where months supply has held steady rather than continuing to improve, accurate pricing from day one matters as much as ever. Buyers have choices, and they are not chasing overpriced listings.
- In the condo segment, where absorption is genuinely improving on balance, well-priced listings are seeing real activity, but expect the process from offer to close to take longer than it did a year ago.
- If your property is on the Minatoya List, understanding where you sit relative to Bill 88’s new framework is now part of a complete pricing conversation, not an afterthought.
If We Were Considering Buying Right Now
For single-family home buyers, conditions are holding steady. The negotiating room from earlier in the year hasn’t disappeared, but it hasn’t expanded either. Eight months of supply still favors buyers clearly. Being ready to move when the right property comes along still matters more than trying to time a further shift.
For condo buyers, this is the segment with the most to watch. Both pending and closed sales ran well ahead of last year’s second quarter, and understanding a specific property’s Bill 9 and Bill 88 status is essential before making an offer, not something to sort out afterward. The right condo, at the right price, with a clear zoning picture, remains a strong long-term position on this island.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch in Q3
Whether the Planning Commission’s review of Resolutions 26-110 and 26-111 moves quickly or slowly will shape how much clarity Minatoya List owners have heading into the fall, and whether the pace of that first wave sets the tempo for the waves that follow. On the single-family side, whether the third quarter brings a return to growth in closings or another flat quarter, alongside the continued pending sales gains, will tell us more about where this segment is headed. On the condo side, whether Wailea and Makena’s softer Q2 was a one-quarter dip or the start of a real pullback in that specific market is worth watching closely. Nationally, whether mortgage rates continue to hold their recent range or break meaningfully in either direction will matter more for Maui’s second-home and investment buyers than it typically does for primary residence markets on the mainland.
If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific situation, whether that is understanding where a Minatoya property stands in the Bill 88 process, deciding whether now is the right time to list, or making sense of what a longer closing timeline means for your offer strategy, that is exactly the kind of conversation we enjoy having with our clients.
With Aloha,
All information taken from Hawaii Information Services, MLS Sales Data and news sources, information shown herein, while not guaranteed, is derived from sources deemed reliable. This Maui real market analysis represents our opinion of Maui Real Estate based on available data and should not be considered financial or legal advice.
