Redfin reports nearly 63% more sellers than buyers nationwide, while Fannie Mae projects mortgage rates averaging 7.5% in 2027. Here’s what that combination means for Maui homes, vacant land, and condominiums.
Mortgage rates are already above 7%. Freddie Mac’s weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2027? Fannie Mae’s October mortgage rate forecast offers little indication of substantial relief, projecting an average of 7.5% next year, following a projected 7.4% average in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, buyers are gaining negotiating room in many housing markets. That creates a complicated environment: more choices and potentially more flexible sellers, but monthly payments that remain difficult to afford.
For Maui buyers and sellers, those pressures play out differently across single-family homes, vacant land, and condominiums.
What Is Fannie Mae’s Mortgage Rate Forecast for 2027?
Fannie Mae’s October Housing Forecast projects 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaging 7.5% in each quarter of 2027.
The outlook is higher than the mortgage-rate scenarios presented in economist Paul Brewbaker’s July update to the REALTORS® Association of Maui. Using June National Association for Business Economics Treasury-yield projections and assumed mortgage spreads, his presentation illustrated 2027 mortgage rates around 6.0%–6.3%.
Those summer scenarios and Fannie Mae’s October forecast use different approaches and assumptions. Their contrast nevertheless shows why buyers and sellers should revisit earlier financing expectations.
To show how a one-percentage-point difference affects the monthly payment, consider a $750,000 mortgage over 30 years:
| Illustrative interest rate | Monthly principal and interest |
| 6.5% | $4,741 |
| 7.5% | $5,244 |
| Difference | $503 per month |
These figures are illustrative, not loan quotes. Taxes, insurance, association fees, and other costs are additional.
Forecasts can change, and individual loan quotes vary. But sellers should be cautious about relying on lower rates to bring buyers back, while buyers need a purchase that works under the financing available to them.
Why Are Mortgage Rates Still Elevated?
Inflation remains a central factor. The September Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose to 2.6%. Higher gasoline prices drove much of the monthly increase.
When inflation runs above expectations, bond investors typically demand higher yields, and mortgage rates tend to follow.
Redfin: Sellers Outnumber Buyers by Nearly 63% Nationwide
Redfin’s September 2026 analysis estimates that sellers outnumbered buyers nationally by 62.6%, the largest gap in its records dating back to 2013. Its comparison of the 50 largest metropolitan areas classified 41 as buyer’s markets.
Redfin’s metro rankings focus on the nation’s largest housing markets, which don’t include Maui, so the national findings serve as context rather than a local measure. Our MLS analysis below shows how conditions differ across Maui homes, vacant land, and condominiums.
An imbalance between sellers and buyers can give purchasers more properties to compare and more opportunities to negotiate. However, negotiating power and purchasing power are different things.
A buyer may secure a price reduction or closing-cost credit while still facing a monthly payment above their budget. More inventory can improve the shopping experience without solving the financing problem.
For sellers, that makes competitive pricing especially important. Buyers are evaluating both the property and the financial commitment required to own it.
How Are Higher Borrowing Costs Affecting Maui Real Estate?
Maui’s market reflects that tension, with important differences by property type.
Using data through mid-2026, Brewbaker’s July presentation showed Maui home sales running below their longer-term trend since interest rates moved higher in 2022. His analysis also highlighted a sharper adjustment in condominium pricing than in single-family pricing.
Our Q3 2026 Maui Real Estate Market Update covers the subsequent July–September period:
| Property category | Q3 2025 closings | Q3 2026 closings | Change |
| Single-family homes | 178 | 173 | −2.8% |
| Vacant land | 28 | 23 | −17.9% |
| Condominiums | 156 | 224 | +43.6% |
Single-family homes showed modest improvement beneath relatively steady closings. Accepted offers increased 4.2% year over year, while available inventory declined from 476 homes in June to 457 in September.
September ended with 7.8 months supply of absorption, a measure of available inventory relative to the pace of accepted offers. That leaves buyers considerable choice, even as some indicators improve.
Vacant land remained more selective. Closings declined, and sold dollar volume fell approximately 41%. With only 23 transactions, the particular parcels sold influence those totals substantially. Access, utilities, building potential, and development costs remain central to evaluating an individual property.
For sellers of homes and land, these conditions reinforce the importance of understanding immediate competition. A countywide statistic provides context, but it cannot establish the right price for a particular home or parcel.
Why Is Maui’s Condo Market Showing a Different Pattern?
Condominiums recorded the strongest increase in transactions, following the deeper pricing adjustment highlighted in Brewbaker’s analysis.
Q3 closings rose 43.6%, and available inventory declined approximately 12% between June and September. Fewer new listings also contributed to that inventory reduction.
September still ended with 12.1 months supply of absorption, leaving buyers considerable selection despite the stronger closing totals.
Brewbaker offered an important interpretation of the earlier price adjustment: much of it occurred between Bill 9’s introduction and passage, as buyers and sellers responded to anticipated policy changes.
That provides context for the subsequent increase in closings. Adjusted prices may be helping transactions come together, while rental-use uncertainty and ownership costs continue to influence decisions. However, the Q3 totals cannot establish which factors drove the increase or confirm that the adjustment is complete.
The stronger condo sales pace deserves attention, but it doesn’t establish a broad recovery across Maui real estate. It shows why homes, land, and condominiums need separate analysis.
Should Maui Buyers and Sellers Wait for Lower Rates?
Fannie Mae’s 2027 mortgage rate outlook provides little basis for assuming a substantial reduction is imminent. Forecasts can change, but a real estate decision should be based on the financing conditions available to you.
For buyers, that means evaluating the payment, ongoing ownership expenses, and property-specific risks alongside any negotiating opportunity.
For sellers, it means pricing for today’s competition and purchasing power. Improving activity in one segment doesn’t remove the need for careful positioning in another.
If you’re weighing whether to buy now or wait for mortgage rates, or deciding how to price a Maui home, condominium, or vacant parcel against today’s competition, we can walk through the numbers for your specific situation. Contact Maui Real Estate Advisors to start the conversation.
All information is taken from Hawaii Information Services, MLS Sales Data, and news sources. Information shown herein, while not guaranteed, is derived from sources deemed reliable. This Maui real estate market analysis represents our opinion of Maui Real Estate based on available data and should not be considered financial or legal advice.
Sources:
- Fannie Mae: October 2026 Housing Forecast, dated October 12, 2026. Mortgage-rate assumptions reflect September 30 conditions and are subject to change.
- Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 15, 2026. The national weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.40%.
- Redfin: September 2026 Buyer-Seller Analysis. National figures reflect Redfin’s methodology for estimating active buyers and sellers. Its metro classifications cover the 50 largest metropolitan areas.
- Paul H. Brewbaker: Presented to the REALTORS® Association of Maui on July 31, 2026. The presentation’s local market analysis uses data through mid-2026; its mortgage-rate scenarios draw on June NABE Treasury-yield projections and assumed mortgage spreads.
- MREA: Q3 2026 Maui Real Estate Market Update, using REALTORS® Association of Maui data. Quarterly comparisons cover July–September 2026 versus July–September 2025.
