Data sourced from the REALTORS® Association of Maui
If you have been watching the Maui real estate market and wondering when things would start to shift, the first quarter of 2026 is worth paying attention to.
Closed sales, pending sales, and on-the-ground showing activity all moved in the same direction in Q1. Volume is recovering. Buyer activity is measurably up. And months supply, the metric that tells us how long it would take to sell through current inventory at the current pace of buyer activity, has been on a quiet but gradual downward trend since November. It is still a buyer’s market at 7.6 months of absorption, but the direction appears to be shifting, and that matters.
That does not mean the challenges are behind us. Bill 9 uncertainty continues to weigh on the condo market. National mortgage rates have climbed to a seven-month high, complicated by the conflict in Iran, and recent flooding across parts of Maui has added a layer of disruption that buyers and sellers are navigating in real time.
The defining story of Q1 is this: the market is moving again, selectively. Well-priced properties are getting more showings. Properties that are not priced in line with current market expectations are sitting. That gap between the two is the most important thing to understand heading into Q2.
Let’s dive into the latest data.
Single-Family Homes: Volume Up, Absorption Improving
The single-family segment produced the most encouraging data of the quarter. Closed sales volume is up meaningfully, pending sales are climbing, and months supply has been declining gradually since late last year as buyers absorb available inventory at an improving pace.
Q1 Key Single-Family Stats:
- Closed Sales (Q1 YTD): 176 sales, up 12.8% year-over-year
- Median Sales Price (Q1 YTD): $1,300,000, up 0.4% year-over-year
- Months Supply (March): 7.6 months, down from 8.5 in November 2025
- Days on Market (Q1 YTD): 153 days, up 23.4% year-over-year
Months supply of inventory for sale has declined from 8.5 in November to 7.6 in March, a gradual move in the right direction. This metric reflects not just how much inventory exists, but how quickly buyers are absorbing it. The improving trend tells us that buyer activity is picking up relative to available supply. At 7.6 months, the market still favors buyers, and days on market remain elevated at 153 days. This is not a tight market. But the direction of travel is constructive, and it aligns with what we are seeing on the ground.
Our team closed a number of single-family homes in Q1. What we have been observing is that the listings generating the most activity are the ones priced in line with where the market is today. In this market, accurate pricing is not just good strategy. It is the difference between movement and stagnation.
Condominiums: Volume Recovering, Prices Still Recalibrating
The condo market is the most nuanced part of the Maui picture right now. The headline price numbers show continued recalibration, but the demand signals underneath tell a more constructive story.
Q1 Key Condominium Stats:
- Closed Sales (Q1 YTD): 183 sales, up 9.6% year-over-year
- Median Sales Price (Q1 YTD): $699,000, down 12.1% year-over-year
- Pending Sales (Q1 YTD): 212, up 17.1% year-over-year
- Months Supply (March): 15.0 months, down 2.0% year-over-year, the first year-over-year improvement in this metric
The YTD median of $699,000 reflects real and ongoing price recalibration, driven by elevated inventory and continued uncertainty around Bill 9. But look at what is happening underneath: pending sales up 17.1% for the quarter, the affordability index up 26% year-over-year, and the rate of inventory growth slowing dramatically from the 40%+ year-over-year gains of mid-2025 to just 6.4% in March. The deterioration is decelerating.
Our team closed a number of condominium transactions in Q1, across Kihei and Wailea/Makena, ranging from $950,000 to $2,300,000. What we observed across each of those transactions is consistent with what the broader data is telling us: buyers are active, but they are deliberate. The buyers who are closing right now are informed and intentional.
A note on February’s median spike: the island-wide condo median rose to $847,500 in February before returning to $675,000 in March. February’s elevated figure was significantly influenced by 13 Wailea/Makena closings at a median of $2,650,000, which pulled the island-wide number upward. A concentration of luxury closings in one month is not the same thing as a market turning, so the Q1 YTD median of $699,000 is the number to anchor to.
Regional Spotlight: Kihei and Wailea/Makena
Kihei
Kihei was the most active submarket on island in Q1 across both property types. On the single-family side, 33 homes sold year-to-date through March at a median of $1,300,000, up 65.0% in sales volume year-over-year. On the condo side, 59 units closed at a median of $610,000, making Kihei the most liquid and accessible condo market on island. Activity improved consistently across all three months of the quarter.
Wailea / Makena
Wailea/Makena is telling two stories simultaneously. Single-family volume remains thin by nature, with 9 sales year-to-date at a median of $2,737,500, but prices remain firmly in premium territory, and the buyers showing up here are serious and qualified. On the condo side, 28 units closed year-to-date at a median of $1,985,000, down from $2,850,000 in Q1 2025. The combination of more transactions and lower prices is not a contradiction. It is often how markets work through a correction.
What Is Shaping the Maui Market Locally
Bill 9
Bill 9 remains the defining regulatory force in the condo segment. The Maui Planning Commission’s February 2026 denial of the proposed H-3/H-4 hotel zoning framework means the process is now with the County Council, which requires a supermajority of six votes to proceed. Legal challenges, including a class-action lawsuit arguing vested property rights, add further complexity. Implementation is multi-stage and outcomes are not finalized.
Any buyer considering a condo purchase on Maui should understand the zoning status of the specific property, its status relative to the Minatoya List, the fee simple versus leasehold distinction, and HOA health and long-term ownership costs. Due diligence on this is not optional. It is the first conversation any serious condo buyer should be having.
Flooding and Local Disruptions
Maui experienced significant flooding this past month, with areas that have historically seen water issues experiencing conditions notably worse than usual. This is a timely reminder to look carefully at flood zone designation and the associated insurance implications before committing to a purchase. This is exactly the kind of local context that does not show up in the data but matters enormously to the long-term value of an asset. Working with agents who know this island well, and who can help you ask the right questions during due diligence, is part of what we bring to every transaction.
National News: What Is Shaping the Broader Market
Mortgage Rates Hit a Seven-Month High
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.46% as of April 2, 2026, following five consecutive weeks of increases to its highest level in seven months, according to Freddie Mac. This follows a brief dip below 6% in late February. According to Real Estate News, mortgage application activity fell 10.4% for the week ending March 27, and new listings have slowed as sellers wait for better conditions.
Maui’s buyer pool skews significantly toward cash buyers and buyers with substantial equity. Rate sensitivity here is real, but it is not the same dynamic as a first-time buyer market on the mainland. For the Maui buyer who has been waiting for perfect conditions, the current combination of recalibrated prices, improved inventory, and meaningful negotiating room may represent a more compelling window than the rate headline alone suggests.
The Iran War Is Disrupting the Spring Buying Season
The CNBC Housing Market Survey, conducted with 70 agents nationally between March 24 and March 30, found that roughly one-third of agents cited the economy as their buyers’ primary concern, and another third cited mortgage rates, a significant jump from 26% in Q4 2025. The 30-year fixed rate was 5.99% the day before the Iran conflict began and has since climbed toward 6.5%. Sellers are feeling it too. Fully 37% of agents said time on market was their sellers’ top concern, up from 30% at the end of last year.
Geopolitical uncertainty tends to affect discretionary and second-home markets more acutely than primary residence markets, at least in the short term. Maui sits squarely in that category for many buyers. If the rate environment stabilizes and the conflict resolves, the pent-up demand that has been building since 2024 could return to the market with force. We are watching this closely.
If I Were Selling Right Now
The honest answer is this: price where the market is, not where you need it to be. The activity is there. Buyers are looking. But they are not overpaying, and they have enough inventory to be patient.
Beyond price, presentation is non-negotiable. The bar for photography, preparation, and condition has risen as inventory has grown. A listing that does not show its best can be invisible in this market, regardless of price.
Price accurately from day one. A home that is priced correctly from the start tends to sell faster and closer to list price than one that starts too high and chases the market down with reductions. By the time a price adjustment happens, the listing has gone stale, buyer curiosity has faded, and the seller is negotiating from a weaker position than if they had simply started where the market was.
Two other things worth keeping in mind. Days on market are running 153 days on average for single-family homes and 149 days for condos, so plan your timeline accordingly. And while months supply is trending in the right direction, this remains a buyer’s market. Sellers who price and present competitively are the ones closing.
If I Were Buying Right Now
This is the most negotiable Maui market in several years, and the buyers taking advantage of it are the ones who have done the work. They know the comps. They understand the zoning. They have their financing arranged or their cash positioned. When the right property comes up, they can move.
For single-family buyers, months supply has been declining gradually since November, which tells us that buyer absorption is improving. The market still favors buyers at 7.6 months, but the direction is worth noting. Well-priced properties are generating activity. Being prepared to act on the right one matters more than it did six months ago.
For condo buyers, the opportunity is genuine but requires precision. Not all condos are impacted by Bill 9. Not all HOAs are in equally good health. The right condo at the right price with the right zoning profile can be a strong long-term asset. This is exactly the kind of due diligence our team does every day.
The opportunities are still here. They belong to buyers and sellers who approach this market with intention.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch in Q2
Whether the months supply compression in the single-family segment continues as the spring listing season arrives will tell us whether the improving absorption trend is real or seasonal. On the national side, how quickly the Iran-related rate pressure resolves could determine whether Q2 accelerates or moderates from Q1’s pace. And any movement on Bill 9 at the County Council, whether a vote, a legal ruling, or further delay, will shape buyer sentiment in the condo segment.
If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific situation, we are here. It is often the most useful thing we can offer in a market this nuanced.
This is not a market to rush. It is a market to think clearly, price accurately, and act with purpose.
With Aloha,
All information taken from Hawaii Information Services, MLS Sales Data and news sources, information shown herein, while not guaranteed, is derived from sources deemed reliable. This Maui real market analysis represents our opinion of Maui Real Estate based on available data and should not be considered financial or legal advice.
