As 2024 comes to a close, Maui’s real estate market continues to hold steady, with buyers and sellers watching key Maui Real Estate trends as we head into 2025. While challenges like higher mortgage rates and limited inventory remain, signs of improvement are emerging. Here’s a detailed look at where we are now and what you can expect in the coming year.
Maui Real Estate Trends: November 2024 Recap
Maui’s housing market reflects broader national trends—low inventory continues to keep prices stable, while mortgage rates remain elevated but show signs of cooling. With interest rates likely to dip following the Federal Reserve rate cuts, affordability could see a boost. This may unlock some pent-up buyer demand, providing a much-needed uptick in market activity. Statistics from the REALTORS® Association of Maui, Inc. November 2024 Report provide additional insights on some key maui real estate trends:
Home Prices: Single-family median sales prices increased by 16.9% to $1,300,000, while condominium prices dropped by 19.7% to $715,000, presenting potential opportunities for condo buyers.
Inventory Levels: Inventory grew significantly, with single-family homes up by 54.3% and condominiums surging by 138.5%, signaling more options for buyers.
Sales Activity: Single-family home sales climbed 31.3%, while condominium sales dipped by 7.5%, reflecting shifting demand.
Days on Market: Single-family homes averaged 146 days to sell, while condominiums took 130 days, slightly longer than in 2023.
Key Drivers to Watch
Tourism Recovery
Maui’s tourism industry is projected to rebound by 2% in 2025, particularly as the Japanese market begins to recover. A stronger visitor market often translates to increased interest in vacation and investment properties, which could drive demand in both the luxury and condominium markets.
Construction and Inventory Growth
The ongoing expansion of Maui’s housing inventory aligns with statewide trends of strong construction activity. Single-family supply increased to a 5.7-month level (up 50%), and condominiums reached an 11.2-month supply (up 173.2%). While still not a fully balanced market, these numbers indicate improved conditions for buyers.
Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve’s December 2024 decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% brings the target range to 4.25% to 4.50%. While this cut provides some immediate relief, updated Fed projections indicate fewer and slower rate cuts through 2025 and beyond than previously expected. Current forecasts place the federal funds rate at 3.9% by the end of 2025, which suggests that mortgage rates will ease gradually rather than sharply. Buyers and sellers should prepare for a steady, rather than dramatic, improvement in affordability which could unlock pent-up demand from buyers waiting on the sidelines.
Predictions for 2025
Home Prices: Modest growth of 2–4% is expected, driven by limited inventory and Maui’s continued desirability as a destination. Luxury properties in Wailea/Makena are likely to see sustained interest, with median condo prices already reaching $2,967,275.
Sales Activity: Lower mortgage rates could lead to increased sales activity, especially in high-demand areas like Kihei and Wailuku, which saw median single-family prices of $1,440,000 and $1,080,000, respectively.
Inventory Trends: New construction will be the primary driver of inventory growth, as many homeowners remain locked into lower-rate mortgages.
Luxury and Vacation Properties: Demand for high-end homes and condos is expected to remain strong, bolstered by recovering tourism and Maui’s appeal to second-home buyers.
Opportunities and Challenges for Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers: With rising inventory and easing rates, 2025 offers improved opportunities to purchase—particularly in the condo market, where prices have softened. Buyers should act strategically and partner with knowledgeable local agents to navigate this changing market.
For Sellers: Single-family home sellers benefit from rising prices and steady demand, but competitive pricing will be crucial for condominium sellers in a growing inventory market. Homes received 96.3% of their list price on average, while condos saw slightly lower at 94.5%, indicating room for negotiation.
For Investors: High inventory in condominiums and steady growth in Maui’s luxury segment make this an attractive market for investment, especially as short-term rental demand continues to rise.
The Bottom Line
Maui’s real estate market is poised for a more positive outlook in 2025. With improving mortgage rates, a recovering tourism sector, and rising inventory, both buyers and sellers can expect new opportunities in the year ahead. While affordability will improve, the pace of change will likely be steady, following the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to rate cuts. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, having a skilled real estate team by your side will be essential in navigating the evolving market.
As Maui’s only “Top 100 State of Hawaii Realtor” for 17 consecutive years, Maui Real Estate Advisors is dedicated to providing you with a satisfying, successful experience in Maui’s competitive real estate market through both personal and professional service. With over 60 years of combined experience, our team understands the unique complexities of Maui Real Estate and is committed to putting your investment in the best hands.
Let’s talk about your goals for 2025—whether it’s buying, selling, or exploring your options, we’re here to help you make the most of Maui’s market. Reach out today!
With Sincere Aloha,
