As we reach the midpoint of 2025, Maui’s real estate market continues its shift toward more favorable conditions for buyers. Inventory is up, days on market are growing, and price corrections, particularly in the condo market, are opening the door for opportunity.
That said, we’re still seeing meaningful movement, especially for well-positioned properties. Buyers are being more selective and data-driven, but they’re still writing offers, especially when they see strong value and long-term lifestyle potential. These buyers are taking advantage of the current landscape, and experienced representation is more important than ever for both sides of the transaction.
The takeaway? This is not a market to panic about. It’s a market that rewards smart pricing, strong presentation, and informed negotiation on both sides of the table.
Highlights from the June 2025 Maui Market Stats
Maui Single-Family Homes
- 📉Median sales price: $1,315,000 (–5.7% year-over-year)
- 📈Average sales price: $2,215,481 (+32.9% YoY, boosted by luxury activity)
- 📉New listings: 86 homes (–23.9%)
- 📉Closed sales: 66 (–1.5%)
- 📉Pending sales: 50 (–3.8%)
- 📈Active inventory: 442 homes (+25.9%)
- 📈Average days on market: 143 (+21.2%)
- 📈Months of supply: 8.1 (+42.1%)
- 📉Percent of list price received: 96.0% (–3.0 percentage points)
What it means: Prices are softening slightly, but strong sales at the high end are still happening. Buyers have more room to negotiate, and sellers should expect longer timelines unless they price aggressively from day one.
Maui Condos
- 📉Median sales price: $700,000 (–28.6% YoY)
- 📉Average sales price: $1,311,671 (–6.6%)
- 📉New listings: 127 (–8.6%)
- 📉Closed sales: 56 (–5.1%)
- 📈Pending sales: 54 (+3.8%)
- 📈Active inventory: 884 condos (+30.0%)
- 📈Average days on market: 125 (+5.9%)
- 📈Months of supply: 15.6 (+57.6%)
- 📉Percent of list price received: 95.4% (–1.1 percentage points)
What it means: While overall inventory remains high, there’s a notable uptick in contracts being signed on Maui condos this month. Pending sales rose 3.8% year-over-year, indicating that buyers are shifting from passivity to action, targeting the best listings and moving quickly once they surface. The segment is still competitive, with over 15 months of supply and softening prices, but standout properties are finding traction and buyers are negotiating harder. Sellers who price strategically and present well are seeing results, while buyers have more negotiating room than they’ve had in years.
Year-to-Date Market Trends (Jan–June 2025)
- 📉Single-family home sales: Down 14.9% compared to the first half of 2024
- 📉Condo sales: Down 28.8% year-over-year
- 📈Affordability: Slightly improved due to lower median condo prices and stable single-family pricing
What it means: This is a more balanced, negotiable market than we’ve seen in years. Buyers who understand the numbers, and sellers who are willing to meet the market, can still find great outcomes in 2025.
The Maui Real Estate Market Is Moving, but It’s Not Rushing
While the overall numbers point to a market correction, especially with Maui condos, it’s not all doom and gloom. Properties are still selling. We’re still seeing listings go under contract. But what’s changed is the pace and the mindset of both buyers and sellers.
Buyers are now operating with more leverage, more inventory to choose from, and more room to negotiate. And they’re using it. Sellers, on the other hand, need to recalibrate. Price sensitivity is real, especially with mortgage rates hovering near 7%. Days on market are rising, and overpriced listings are sitting. Presentation and pricing strategy have never mattered more.
That said, there’s still real opportunity, for both sides. Motivated buyers are using this slower environment to make confident, informed decisions. And motivated sellers, who understand today’s market, are still achieving successful outcomes.
This is not a frozen market, it’s a more measured, negotiable, and strategy-driven one. That’s why having the right representation on your side matters more than ever.
What’s Shaping the Market Right Now
Behind the scenes of Maui’s shifting inventory and pricing trends are several larger policy and economic forces shaping how buyers and sellers are approaching the market in mid-2025. These are the headlines that matter, and what they mean for you.
🏝 Maui’s Short-Term Rental Legislation Still Unresolved
On July 2, the Maui County Council’s Housing & Land Use Committee began formal deliberations on Bill 9, a proposal that would phase out short-term rentals in apartment-zoned properties that are currently allowed under the Minatoya list. After six hours of testimony and a lengthy closed-door executive session, the committee recessed until July 23 without taking a vote. No follow-up hearing has been scheduled yet.
📖 Read more: Maui Council Begins Vacation Rental Deliberations
What this means for Maui:
The lack of a decision is keeping both buyers and sellers in a holding pattern in affected areas. Buyers are asking more questions about zoning and permitted uses, and some are pressing pause while waiting for clarity. For sellers, this environment calls for transparency and proactive communication, highlighting existing use rights, long-term lifestyle appeal, and flexibility beyond short-term income potential.
🏛️ New Tax Bill Reinforces Real Estate Investment Incentives
In late June, the U.S. Senate passed a sweeping tax reform package with multiple wins for property owners and investors. The bill includes:
- Making the mortgage interest deduction permanent
- Preserving 1031 like-kind exchanges
- Quadrupling the SALT (state and local tax) deduction cap for five years
- Extending lower individual tax brackets through at least 2027
📖 Read more: Senate Passes Tax Bill With Major Wins for Real Estate
What this means for Maui:
Buyers from high-tax states like California and New York will see more favorable deductions, making a Maui purchase, especially in the luxury or second-home segment, more financially appealing. This kind of policy clarity helps restore buyer confidence and supports strong demand at the upper end of the market.
📉 Mortgage Rates Dip, But Are Likely to Hold Steady
After hovering near 7% for much of the spring, mortgage rates saw a welcome dip in late June. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.67%, the lowest level since early April (AP News). The 15-year rate also declined to 5.80%. Mortgage applications jumped 2.7% following the drop, showing that even slight movement can stir buyer activity.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs projects that mortgage rates will remain in the 6.5–6.75% range through the end of 2025 and into early 2026. With Treasury yields still elevated and the Fed signaling caution, most experts agree we’re unlikely to see a return to ultra-low rates anytime soon.
📖 Read more:
What this means for Maui:
- For buyers, this reinforces the idea that today’s rates may be the new normal. Many are moving forward with purchases now and planning to refinance later.
- For sellers, affordability remains a key concern, especially in the condo and mid-tier market, where mortgage sensitivity is highest. Accurate pricing and professional marketing are essential to stand out.
- Even small drops in rates, like we saw this past week, can unlock fresh demand. That makes timing, pre-approval, and a strategy-driven approach more valuable than ever.
📈 U.S. Economic Strength Keeps Upward Pressure on Rates
In early July, robust economic data pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.5%, marking its highest level in months. This came alongside stock market highs, resilient job growth, and signs of consumer strength. While the Federal Reserve hasn’t raised rates further, the bond market is pricing in a “higher-for-longer” environment.
📖 Read more: AP News: Markets Rally, but Rates Stay High
What this means for Maui:
Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury. As long as the broader economy remains strong, borrowing costs may stay elevated. That adds urgency for rate-sensitive buyers to lock in terms now, and puts even more weight on sellers to position their homes competitively.
📉 More Price Cuts Signal Buyer Leverage
A new report from MarketWatch highlights a key trend playing out nationwide: more sellers are cutting prices. In May, nearly 1 in 5 U.S. listings saw a price reduction, the highest share in nearly a decade. Homes are also sitting longer, averaging 51 days on market, and many sellers are offering incentives like mortgage rate buydowns to get deals across the finish line.
📖 Read the full article
What this means for Maui:
We’re seeing a similar pattern here. Sellers are adjusting expectations, especially in the condo market, and buyers are negotiating more assertively. Strategic concessions, like rate buydowns, are becoming more common and can help bridge the gap between asking price and affordability without outright price drops.
Final Thoughts
The June numbers confirm what we’re seeing on the ground: the market is shifting, but it’s not stagnant. Buyers have more room to negotiate, but homes are still selling, especially when they’re priced and presented strategically. For sellers, this means understanding your competition and working with an agent who can position your property effectively. For buyers, it’s a rare window to act while inventory is high and competition is lower.
📊 What It Means for Buyers & Sellers
For Buyers:
- • You have more options, more leverage, and falling prices—especially in condos.
- • Be strategic: negotiate list price, but still act decisively on well-priced properties.
For Sellers:
- • The market is shifting. Price competitively, stage thoughtfully, and plan for longer DOM.
- • The luxury market remains active, but mainstream and vacation-rental-targeted listings face slower absorption.
If you’re thinking about making a move this summer, we’re here to help you navigate it with clarity, strategy, and confidence.
With Aloha,
All information taken from Hawaii Information Services, MLS Sales Data—information shown herein, while not guaranteed, is derived from sources deemed reliable. This market analysis represents our opinion of Maui Real Estate based on available data and should not be considered financial or legal advice.
Curious about the property in our featured image? It’s our new listing at 322 Kolohala Dr. in Kula. Full details at www.kulacottage.info
