Data sourced from the REALTORS® Association of Maui
When you step back and look at the full arc of 2025, one thing becomes clear: this was a year that separated intentional buyers and sellers from everyone else.
The annual data tells a story of meaningful recalibration. Prices adjusted, inventory rose, and days on market stretched across both property types. But the year did not end the way it began. Month-over-month, as 2025 closed out, buyer activity began returning. December closings accelerated. Well-priced properties found traction again.
That contrast is the most important thing to understand as we carry these numbers into 2026.
This is not a stalled market. It is a reset market, and one that is beginning to show early signs of reengagement.
Let’s look at what the data actually shows.
Single-Family Homes: Resilient Where It Counts
The single-family segment proved its durability in 2025. Against a backdrop of rising inventory and extended days on market, pricing held in a way that deserves attention.
Full-Year 2025 Single-Family Key Stats:
- Closed Sales (YTD): 708, down 5.9% year-over-year
- Median Sales Price (YTD): $1,295,000, down just 0.4% year-over-year
- Days on Market (YTD): 136 days, up 9.7% year-over-year
- Months Supply of Inventory (December): 8.0 months, up from 6.5 in December 2024
What those numbers are actually saying is worth unpacking carefully. Yes, fewer homes sold in 2025 than in 2024. Yes, it took longer to get them sold. But the median price of $1,295,000 for the full year represents a decline of $5,500 from 2024. On a market at this price point, that is not a correction. It is normalization.
The months supply of absorption, the metric that tells us how long it would take to sell through current inventory at the current pace of buyer activity, closed the year at 8.0 months in December. That favors buyers, and meaningfully so. A balanced market typically runs between four and six months. But the direction of travel matters here too. After peaking in the spring, months supply for single-family held relatively flat from July through December, ranging between 8.0 and 8.3. The acceleration in inventory growth that characterized the first half of the year had eased considerably by year’s end.
What we observed on the ground aligned with what the data is showing. The listings that sold the quickest in 2025 were the ones positioned correctly from the start. In a year when buyers had time and options, overpriced homes sat. Homes that were priced where the market actually was (not where sellers hoped it would be) continued to transact, often with shorter days on market than the broader average. We saw that pattern repeatedly across the range of properties our team represented.
December itself provided a constructive note to end the year on. Single-family pending sales in December came in at 61, up 48.8% compared to December 2024. Closed sales for the month reached 66, up 22.2% year-over-year. A single month does not change the annual picture, but that kind of December activity reflects real buyer engagement returning as the year closed out.
Condominiums: A Year of Structural Recalibration
The condominium market had a harder year, and the data is unambiguous about that. What matters is understanding why, and what it means for buyers and sellers heading into 2026.
Full-Year 2025 Condominium Key Stats:
- Closed Sales (YTD): 699, down 18.0% year-over-year
- Median Sales Price (YTD): $692,860, down 23.0% year-over-year
- Days on Market (YTD): 148 days, up 28.7% year-over-year
- Months Supply of Inventory (December): 15.8 months, up from 12.2 in December 2024
Every major metric moved in the same direction across the full year, and at meaningful magnitude. That is not a soft quarter or a slow patch. It is a market that recalibrated in 2025 at a level that requires honest interpretation.
The 23% decline in the full-year median, from $900,000 in 2024 to $692,860 in 2025, reflects several forces working simultaneously. Inventory expanded dramatically, more than doubling in some months compared to the prior year before moderating later in the year. Buyers became more deliberate and more selective. And uncertainty surrounding Bill 9, Maui’s short-term rental phase-out legislation, weighed heavily on the segment, particularly for apartment-zoned properties where the question of long-term use and income potential became a central part of every buyer’s due diligence.
The housing affordability index for condominiums improved significantly over the course of the year, reaching 66 in December, up 43.5% from the same month in 2024. The full-year average came in at 61, up 38.6% year-over-year. Both figures reflect the real and meaningful price recalibration that occurred. Condominiums on Maui became measurably more accessible in 2025 than they were in 2024. That is not a silver lining spun from bad news. It is a genuine shift in value that buyers with long-term ownership goals and clear use cases should take seriously.
Months supply for condominiums remained elevated throughout the year, peaking at 16.4 in April before pulling back to 14.5 in October, then ticking back up to 15.8 by year’s end. At 15.8 months, this is a buyer’s market in every sense. The pace of absorption has not caught up with the level of available inventory. That equation will matter considerably in 2026.
What we saw on the ground was that the condo market did not stop transacting…it became more selective. Buyers who had done their homework, who understood the zoning status of a specific property, had assessed HOA health, and had clarity on their own intended use, were willing to move when value aligned with expectations. Buyers who lacked that preparation often paused. In a market where days on market averaged 148 days for the year, patience was abundant, and leverage belonged to those who had done the research.
Regional Spotlight: Kihei and Wailea/Makena
Kihei
Kihei was one of the most active markets on the island in 2025 for both property types, and the data reflects that clearly.
On the single-family side, 105 homes closed across Kihei for the full year, up 9.4% from 2024, at a full-year median of $1,275,000. Volume improved even as the year-over-year median pulled back 8.6% from $1,394,500. The transaction count tells an important part of the story: more buyers engaged in Kihei single-family in 2025 than in 2024, which suggests that price recalibration brought more buyers to the table rather than driving them away.
On the condominium side, Kihei recorded 246 closed sales for the year, down 19.6% from 2024’s 306 closings, at a full-year median of $655,000, a 15.1% decline from $771,500 the prior year. Kihei carries the highest concentration of condo inventory on the island, and it was the submarket where Bill 9 uncertainty was felt most acutely. The distinction between hotel-zoned and apartment-zoned properties became more consequential in 2025 than in any recent year. Buyers were increasingly focused on this distinction, and sellers whose properties had clear use profiles saw meaningfully better outcomes than those where the picture was murkier.
Kihei remains Maui’s most price-accessible submarket for buyers seeking single-family homes, and one of the most liquid condo markets on the island. Those fundamentals do not change with one year’s data. But precision on zoning, HOA health, and use flexibility is non-negotiable for any condo buyer in this market right now.
Wailea / Makena
Wailea and Makena tell two different stories in 2025, and it is important to hold them separately.
On the condo side, 75 units closed for the full year at a median of $2,300,000, down from $2,500,000 and 151 sales in 2024. That is a significant decline in volume (50.3%) alongside an 8.0% price adjustment. The volume story here is the more consequential one. Wailea’s condo market has historically been driven by a narrow buyer pool with specific lifestyle expectations, and 2025 saw that pool pull back meaningfully. The properties that did transact continued to command premium prices. The ones that did not move tended to be those that had not yet adjusted expectations to where the market currently sits.
On the single-family side, 18 homes closed in Wailea/Makena for the full year at a median of $3,662,500. Given the small number of transactions in this submarket in any given year, one or two sales can shift the median significantly in either direction, and directional claims based on 18 transactions warrant appropriate caution. What we can say with confidence is that demand for exceptional, well-positioned properties in Wailea and Makena did not disappear in 2025. Our own experience with listings there confirmed that. How a property was priced, prepared, and brought to market determined outcomes far more than the broader market environment did.
Wailea and Makena remain Maui’s premier luxury submarket, supported by lifestyle, resort-level amenities, long-term ownership appeal, and a buyer profile that prioritizes quality over urgency. That has not changed. What has changed is that this segment now requires the same discipline on pricing and positioning that the rest of the island has been living with for the past year.
What Is Shaping the Maui Market Locally
Bill 9
Bill 9, now law, initiates a multi-stage phase-out of short-term vacation rental use in apartment-zoned condominium properties across Maui. Implementation is ongoing, outcomes are not finalized, and the regulatory and legal landscape continues to evolve. At year’s end, significant questions remained about how the multi-stage process would ultimately affect specific property types, zoning classifications, and existing use rights.
Legal challenges arguing vested property rights added further complexity. This is a process with meaningful uncertainty at multiple points, and that uncertainty was felt in buyer behavior throughout 2025, we wrote about it often here.
What this means practically for buyers: the zoning status of a specific property, its position relative to the Minatoya List, the distinction between fee simple and leasehold ownership, HOA health and reserves, and long-term use flexibility are not secondary considerations. They are the first conversation any serious condo buyer should be having. Due diligence here is not optional.
How We’re Interpreting the Maui Market Right Now
When I step back and look at the January through December 2025 data as a whole, the market is telling a clear and consistent story.
The annual numbers confirm that recalibration occurred. Pricing adjusted, inventory rose, days on market extended, and buyers gained leverage they had not had in several years. That part of the story is well documented in the data.
What deserves equal attention is what happened as the year progressed. Condo inventory growth rates, which had been running above 100% year-over-year in the early months of 2025, moderated significantly by year’s end. Single-family inventory growth rates similarly eased from the 50 to 70 percent range seen in the spring. Single-family inventory was up just 14.5% year-over-year in December. Condo inventory was up 18.4%. Those are still elevated numbers, but the trajectory had changed. The acceleration had stopped.
And the December closing and pending data, while a single month, showed buyers returning when value aligned with their expectations. That is the pattern this market has been following all year: not a disappearing act, but a strategic pause followed by engagement when the conditions were right.
The distinction matters heading into 2026.
If I Were Selling in Maui Right Now
The most important thing I would do is price where the market is today, not where it was in 2022 or even in early 2024. Buyers in this market have access to extensive comparable data, and they know when a property is misaligned. A listing that starts too high rarely recovers its momentum after the first price adjustment. The market has already seen it, interest has already faded, and the seller is now negotiating from a weaker position than if they had simply started accurately.
Beyond price, presentation has become more important in this environment than it has been in years. With inventory elevated and days on market extended, the listings generating activity are the ones that show exceptionally well. That means photography, condition, and preparation are not cosmetic concerns. They are strategic ones.
Sellers who approach this market with realistic expectations, accurate pricing, and strong presentation are still achieving results. We saw that throughout 2025. In a year when island-wide days on market stretched to 136 days for single-family homes and 148 days for condominiums, the properties our team represented that were positioned correctly from day one consistently performed better than the broader market average. Strategy protects value. That was true in 2025 and it will be true in 2026.
If I Were Buying in Maui Right Now
This is a more favorable buying environment than Maui has offered in several years, and the buyers who are taking advantage of it are the ones who have done the preparation.
For single-family buyers, the median price held at $1,295,000 for the full year, essentially flat, while months supply moved to 8.0. That combination of price stability and meaningful buyer leverage does not appear often in this market. Well-priced properties are still generating activity and competition, so the window is not open indefinitely. But buyers who are prepared, who know the comps, and who can move with clarity when the right property appears are in a meaningfully better position today than they were two or three years ago.
For condominium buyers, the opportunity is genuine but requires precision. The affordability index for condos improved 38.6% year-over-year, a reflection of how significantly prices recalibrated in 2025. That creates real value for buyers with long-term ownership goals and a clear plan. But not all condos are equal under Bill 9. Not all HOAs are in equally sound condition. The right condo, at the right price, with the right zoning profile and a healthy association, can be a strong long-term asset on Maui. Identifying that property requires work that goes well beyond the listing price.
I would focus on properties that have already adjusted to current conditions, not those still anchored to peak expectations. I would negotiate confidently, not aggressively, understanding that well-priced properties still attract interest. And above all, I would buy with a long-term mindset. Maui has always rewarded patience, perspective, and thoughtful decision-making.
The opportunities are still here. They belong to buyers and sellers who approach this market with intention.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch in 2026
Whether the moderation in single-family inventory growth continues into the spring listing season will be one of the more important signals to track. If months supply begins to compress, it will tell us that buyer absorption is improving relative to new supply, the early signal of a market moving toward balance.
On the condo side, any movement on Bill 9 at the County Council, whether a vote, a legal ruling, or further delay, will likely shape buyer psychology in that segment considerably. The passage of time without resolution has already been priced into the market to a significant degree, but clarity in either direction could move things quickly.
And the broader rate environment will matter for buyers who are financing. Maui’s buyer pool skews heavily toward cash and high-equity purchasers, so rate sensitivity here is not the same as in a first-time buyer market. But it is real, and any meaningful shift in mortgage rates over the course of 2026 will influence the pace of decision-making for a meaningful portion of potential buyers.
If you want to talk through what any of this means for your specific situation, whether you are weighing a sale, still deciding whether to buy, or trying to make sense of how Bill 9 affects a property you are evaluating, that is exactly the kind of conversation we have every day. This market rewards clarity, and we are here to help you find it.
This is not a market to rush. It is a market to think clearly, price accurately, and act with purpose.
With Aloha,
All information taken from Hawaii Information Services, MLS Sales Data and news sources, information shown herein, while not guaranteed, is derived from sources deemed reliable. This Maui real market analysis represents our opinion of Maui Real Estate based on available data and should not be considered financial or legal advice.
